Will petrol and diesel prices go up?
By Sunny Kundi · updated 30 Sept 2026 · How we test
Chartered accountant with 20 years in banking and data. Founder of Petrol Price Map.
We do not forecast pump prices, and this page is not a prediction. What we can show is what the things that move them are doing, each with its date: the price of crude oil, the pound against the dollar, and fuel duty. They are context. Retailers set pump prices, and wholesale fuel, refining, delivery costs and competition all sit between crude oil and the price on the forecourt.
At the pump now
- Petrol (E10): 174.8p a litre, the UK average across 5,522 forecourts
- Diesel: 200.1p a litre, the UK average across 6,026 forecourts
Measured 1 Oct 2026, 00:37, from the prices forecourts reported in the last 7 days; older prices are left out, not carried forward. Find the cheapest near you on the map.
Brent crude (crude oil, not wholesale fuel)
Brent crude (crude oil, not wholesale fuel) was $114.89 a barrel on 22 Sept 2026, which is about 53.4p a litre at that day’s exchange rate. That is up $26.65 (30.2%) on 25 Aug 2026, or up 12.7p a litre in pence.
A litre of crude oil is not a litre of petrol or diesel. It has to be refined, and UK wholesale petrol and diesel prices are not published free, so crude oil is shown here as context only. Changes in crude usually reach wholesale fuel over weeks, not days, and not one for one.
| Day | Dollars a barrel | Pence a litre |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Sept 2026 | $114.89 | 53.4p |
| 18 Sept 2026 | $119.66 | 55.6p |
| 11 Sept 2026 | $118.06 | 54.9p |
| 4 Sept 2026 | $102.24 | 47.5p |
| 28 Aug 2026 | $89.75 | 41.6p |
| 21 Aug 2026 | $96.92 | 44.6p |
| 14 Aug 2026 | $92.02 | 42.8p |
| 7 Aug 2026 | $87.62 | 41.0p |
The pound against the dollar
£1 bought $1.32 on 29 Sept 2026, down 2.8 cents on 1 Sept 2026. Oil is priced in dollars, so a weaker pound makes the same barrel dearer in pence, and a stronger pound makes it cheaper.
Fuel duty
Fuel duty is 52.95p a litre on petrol and diesel today. From 1 Jan 2027 it is due to be 55.95p, which would add 3.6p a litre once VAT is included (the legislative default, to be confirmed at the Budget on 28 October 2026). From 1 Mar 2027 it is due to be 57.95p, which would add 2.4p a litre once VAT is included (the legislative default, to be confirmed at the Budget on 28 October 2026). Duty is the one input with dates fixed in advance. Fuel duty explained has the full split of today’s price.
What this does and does not tell you
- It tells you which way the inputs have moved over about the last 4 weeks, and by how much, with dates.
- It does not tell you what pump prices will do. Nobody publishes a reliable forecast, and we do not make one.
- Brent is crude oil, not wholesale fuel. Pump prices follow wholesale fuel, which follows crude with a delay and not one for one.
- Our own record of pump prices is on the UK diesel price record page and in the weekly report.